Panorama March 2026 edition is out now!

Panorama is a meticulously crafted report that provides a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic factors and market trends influencing India’s economic landscape.

Here are the key insights from the report:

1. The Middle East accounts for a significant share of the global energy supply. India relies on imports to meet nearly 90% of its crude oil demand, with the Middle East contributing about 50% of these imports.
2. India also depends on imports for around 50% of its LNG requirements, of which roughly 70% comes from the Middle East. Additionally, the region accounts for nearly 90% of India’s LPG imports and about 45% of its fertiliser imports.
3. An extended conflict in the Middle East could trigger a sharp spike in inflation. In India’s latest CPI basket, the combined weight of petrol, diesel, and LPG has risen to 6.8% from 3.6% earlier, making headline inflation more sensitive to fuel prices. A 10% increase in these prices adds roughly 70 bps (direct impact) to inflation.
4. Higher oil prices could strain India’s current account, with every US$10 per barrel increase potentially widening the deficit by ~0.5% of GDP. The Middle East also contributes around 40% of inward remittances, which may be affected in a prolonged conflict. A wider deficit would likely keep the INR under pressure.
5. Markets have begun pricing in higher interest rates as the conflict is expected to push inflation upward. Market volatility could rise further if tensions in the Middle East escalate. Energy shortages and higher inflation may also disrupt the recovery in consumption and put pressure on corporate margins. However, the overall economic impact should remain contained if the conflict is resolved within a short period.

Click here to read the report