Panorama – October 2025

Panorama October 2025 edition is out now!

Panorama is a meticulously crafted report that provides a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic factors and market trends influencing India’s economic landscape.

Here are the key insights from the report:

  1. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven investment continues to strongly support the US economy. Tech’s contribution to growth, primarily from AI-related investment, has risen since December 2024, while the share of consumption has declined. However, the continued decline in leading indicators points to weakening underlying momentum.
  2. AI’s impact on the labour market appears overstated, as current softness is driven more by broader economic conditions than by AI-related displacement. Historically, youth unemployment tends to rise sharply during economic downturns. Therefore, elevated youth unemployment alone does not necessarily indicate AI-induced job losses.
  3. Despite productivity gains, firms report declining adoption as they struggle to identify use cases and integrate AI into workflows. Many report rising ‘workslop’- AI-generated work that appears polished but lacks meaningful substance.
  4. AI will likely increase the skill premium, boosting wages and employment for skilled over unskilled workers. Additionally, tech advancements like generative AI tend to shift income distribution from labour to capital.
  5. Hyperscaler capex is surging, driven by AI infrastructure demand. While strong profits enable self-financing, rapid expansion is pushing hyperscalers toward external credit via bonds and institutional partnerships. The AI tech investment cycle mirrors the 1990s telecom boom but with a sharper, faster infrastructure surge.
  6. Tech advances like AI have been the primary force behind improving living standards. If AI follows a similar trajectory to past technologies, it will likely sustain rather than significantly accelerate the historical growth rate. However, AI may also potentially accelerate the discovery of new ideas, which could raise the long-term rate of productivity growth.

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